Risk/Reward

Image by Nick M. W.

By Emmitt Smith and Nick M. W.

What’s a fantasy football playoff spot worth? Some team owners traded future promise for a shot at the league title this season.

The first half of the AGS 2022 season has been a grind for all but one mighty team, and it will only get worse for us as we claw uphill for the coveted 6 playoff spots.

Are you also in an ass-clinching week-to-week fantasy football situation? We can empathize. Wins are hard to earn, and each loss is a cinder block tied to your feet, dragging your team deeper into the abyss of consolation playoffs, or worse. 

Yet, there remains hope for more than half the league because all you have to do is make the post-season tourney.

Trades and injuries create opportunities for players to succeed at levels they could not previously, but you have to be on the right side of fortune for that to carry you to the land of milk and honey.

Some of us just aren't that lucky.

Reactions to Week 8:

Emmitt:  "Cruel" is the first word that comes to mind to describe this week’s 134-79.5 butchering of my Replacements. "Embarrassing" is another word to describe when your quarterback can only muster up two points! Yes, my quarterback, Derek Carr, was unable to get his offense, which has a healthy Devante Adams*, across midfield! 

Derek Carr is my boogeyman, my Bates motel room, and my bye week nightmare on Elm Street.

Nick: Stoked! Week 8 couldn't have gone better. I beat a good team that was missing it's best player, which is exactly when you want to beat a good team. 

Biggest surprise of Week 8:

Nick: Tony Pollard. He was instrumental in my victory against the Quan. (mention point differential), so Pollard’s 34.5 points were clutch. 

I just hope the Cowboys come back from their bye and decide to give T. P. all them good Dallas touches. Zeke's looking a bit worn down from all those years  dominating the carries. 

Emmitt: My obvious surprise was again, Derek Carr not even getting a red zone opportunity. He never crossed the 50-yard line and barely threw over 100 yards. The ONLY time I used Carr in a very favorable matchup turns out to be the old banana in the tailpipe trick. 

Last Wednesday was the AGS trade deadline. Rudy, you alluded to the possibility of a trade after you honey-dicked us for weeks leading up to the deadline with a steady diet of “I’m standing pat with the team I’ve got.” Why did you change your mind?

Emmitt: I don’t know what honey-dicked** means, but if I want to have a chance I need a big receiver, which the top teams (in AGS) have. I got receivers that have incompetent quarterbacks, and I needed a third running back just in case I still struggle with my receivers. My problems are Pittman, Sutton, Kirk and Reynolds, I wanted to trade one of them before the value went down. May I add that it was comforting to release Derek Carr Tuesday morning?

Nick: It must have felt like dropping a fat, long-awaited turd.

You’re sitting at 3 - 5 with 0 division wins, however, you are not out of the playoff race. How are you feeling about your chances of making the playoffs? 

Emmitt: I also have a win against you, and I hope it keeps you out of anything this year. Bruh, my feelings haven’t changed.

Nick: Wow. This. Is. Personal. The gloves have come off!

Since you didn’t answer the question (and you wished death upon Rebel Scum), I’ll just assume that you’re not feeling great about your playoff chances.

Do you feel any additional pressure to make the playoffs after your big trade?

Emmitt: What pressure? No. My team came in last place in 2021, so it wasn’t like I was expected to make the playoffs this year. Besides, who knows how many of these players will be healthy the entire time and of course? Anything can happen.

Nick: You’re right. Anything can happen, but you paid a premium price for that #1 receiver and 3rd running back.

This is a screenshot.

Nick: I guess you could always trade for a #1 pick in the off-season or in-season next year, but as it stands, that’s two years without a first round pick, with the added bonus of not having a 2nd round pick next year. Seems like you went for it to make the playoffs this year at all costs, yet, you remain cooler than a polar bear’s toenails.

Another screenshot.

Scum, what inspired this move?

Nick: I couldn’t get a QB upgrade without letting go of Ekeler, and that seemed counterintuitive. I'm trying to improve my team, and trading one of the best running backs fantasy football this season won’t do that. I have lamented my uninspiring 4th round draft of Aaron Rodgers, a pick that I had to give up a 2023 4th rounder to make, and he’s been unremarkably steady. Is steady enough, though? I also have Justin Fields. “Why?”

Not sure exactly, but maybe he’s turned a corner and become Mike Vick lite.

Anyway, the Bills DST was on the trade block, and I saw another opportunity to pick up a set and forget defense, so I burned next year’s 5th and a 2024 6th. I’ll start next year’s draft without a 4th and 5th round pick, but (hopefully) that won’t matter much. I still have my first 3 picks for the next couple of years, and I’ll at least start next season with Cooper Kupp, Austin Ekeler, and Javonte Williams if I fail to make the playoffs this season. I’ll worry about that shit next August.

But you were mocked for making that trade.

Nick: Yeah, I was. Some dudes think they’re smarter team managers than they really are. What more can I say?

Do you feel additional pressure to make the playoffs after this trade?

Nick: Yes, I do. I feel that pressure every season, and it builds with each week until either I make it or I don’t. 4 teams out of the 12 in our league don’t have a championship, including my team. There’s pressure every year to not be the last team to be waiting on a chip.

I didn’t mortgage much of my future to get that Bills defense, so there isn’t much risk for Scum going forward, but that pressure will always be lingering.

You are currently 5 - 3. How do you feel about your chances of making the playoffs?

Nick: I feel like I need at least 3 more wins before I can start thinking realistically about a playoff run, but an 8 - 6 record might not be enough to get it done, so it’s more like “get to 9, and I’ll be fine.”

Easier said than done, though. In AGS, on any given Sunday, all 6 of my next opponents could put up a lot of points, and Rebel Scum could wither away. Or, the opposite could happen. Rudy pretty much said the same shit earlier.

Predictions for your Week 9 matchups:

Nick: An edge-of-your seat victory for Rebel Scum. New Jax City has always been a tough opponent. I don’t think he’s going to have enough sage to burn ahead of this week’s battle, though.

Emmitt:  Rudy’s gotta win, every game, from here on out!

*Davante Adams was actually dealing with an “undisclosed” health condition last week, and he continues to deal with it into Week 9.

** “honeydicking” is defined by the scholars at UrbanDictionary.com as tricking someone to advance your own personal agenda. Perhaps Rudy was honeydicking himself into believing he wouldn’t make some irrational trade.